Kamala Harris Leads Michigan in 3-Point Swing With GOP-Aligned Pollster

Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in the key swing state of Michigan, according to a survey conducted by a polling group that is generally affiliated with Republicans.
A Michigan News Source and Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS) poll of 585 likely Michigan voters, carried out by Mitchell Research & Communications, shows Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump (50 percent to 48) in a head-to-head race.
Harris also has a 1-point lead over the former president (49 percent to 48) in an eight-person ballot which includes Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Cornel West who is running as an independent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (all at 1 percent).
The poll was conducted from October 29 to November 2. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.04 percentage points. Pollster Mitchell Research & Communications’ client list of politicians mainly consists of Republicans.
The former president was ahead of Harris (48 percent to 47) in a previous MIRS /Michigan News Source/Mitchell Research & Communications head-to-head poll of 588 likely voters, conducted on October 14. They were tied at 47 percent when the poll was expanded to a full presidential ballot of eight candidates. The margin of error was 4 percentage points either way.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaign teams for comment via email.
Michigan, with 15 Electoral College votes, is one of the three battleground states that are crucial to Harris’ hopes for victory in Tuesday’s election. Harris will reach 270 Electoral College votes if she wins the Wolverine State, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere.
Trump could win the 2024 election overall by beating Harris in the Sun Belt swing states of Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, as well as flipping Michigan.
Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, said early voting in Michigan suggests that the polling company previously underrepresented Harris’ support among women and Black voters. Polling companies had underestimated Trump’s support in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
“One criticism of pollsters is that they ‘herd’ at the end trying to be close to other pollsters. That is not what we do,” said Mitchell in a statement.
“Before polling began, we looked at what we thought would be the likely turnout in 2024. Every poll we conducted—including this one—was weighted exactly the same. We weighted party affiliation, gender, age, race, area, and education,” Mitchell said.
“It seems clear now that we are under sampling women, African Americans, and the City of Detroit based on absentee ballot returns and early voting.
“However, to assure we are comparing ‘apples to apples,’ we kept the same weights we have used all along,” he added.
The direct matchup poll results reveal there is a significant gender gap between the two candidates in Michigan. Harris has a 15-point lead among women (56 percent to 41), while Trump leads by 14 points among men (55 percent to 41).
Harris has a clear advantage among Black voters in Michigan, 87 percent to 9, while Trump leads 52 percent to 46 among white voters.
The polling company said that although the crosstab numbers are slightly different in the eight-person ballot, the difference between Harris’ and Trump’s percentages remains consistent.
The survey also shows that Michigan Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin leads the race for the state’s Senate seat against former GOP Representative Mike Rogers by 2 points (50 percent to 48 percent) in a 2-person ballot.